{ "schemaVersion": "0.1", "id": "startup-commercial-validation-scorecard-20260715", "checkedAt": "2026-07-15T22:56:53+08:00", "sourceEvidence": { "startupDecision": "data/startup-current-decision-20260715.json", "chargeableGate": "data/chargeable-mvp-gate-20260715.json", "paidPublishing": "data/paid-publishing-readiness-20260710.json", "sourceTraceability": "data/source-traceability-publishing-gate-20260715.json", "outcomeLadder": "data/geo-outcome-evidence-ladder-current-20260715.json", "pagesdevSingleAnswerQuality": "data/pagesdev-ai-single-row-answer-quality-rp-20260714-doubao-g1.json", "externalActionQueue": "data/external-action-authorization-queue-20260715.json", "geoEntryPriority": "data/geo-bb78-submission-entry-priority-latest.json", "marketValidation": "data/geo-diagnostic-market-validation-readiness-latest.json", "marketValidationResults": "data/geo-diagnostic-market-validation-results-latest.json", "objectiveProgress": "data/objective-current-progress-dashboard-20260715.json", "unitEconomics": "data/startup-unit-economics-20260715.json" }, "objectiveStatus": "in-progress-not-complete", "objectiveScore": 61, "overallValidationScore": 65, "rawValidationScore": 71, "totalWeight": 110, "overallStatus": "diagnostic-service-ready-original-recharge-model-not-validated", "oneLineConclusion": "当前最可验证的是 7 天 GEO 证据诊断；自有站 AI 监测需要先跑 A1 实测；客户充值发文和 AI 结果承诺仍 No-Go。", "currentEvidenceSnapshot": { "currentCampaignLevel": "E3-public-crawlable", "pagesdevLevel": "E3-public-crawlable", "jjppLevel": "E2-backend-published", "cnblogsLevel": "E1-media-entry-or-controlled-url-ready", "answerQualityStatus": "awaiting-answer-evidence", "recommendedExternalAction": "A1-pagesdev-doubao-direct-url", "canChargeDiagnostic": true, "canOpenRecharge": false, "canSellOutcomePromise": false, "marketValidationStatus": "ready-to-prepare-outreach-not-launched" }, "evidenceDimensions": [ { "id": "content-and-source-governance", "name": "内容结构与来源追溯", "weight": 15, "points": 15, "status": "passed", "evidence": [ "data/source-traceability-publishing-gate-20260715.json" ], "conclusion": "来源追溯状态：sample-source-traceability-ready-paid-publishing-closed。", "blocker": "" }, { "id": "controlled-site-crawlability", "name": "自有站公开可抓取", "weight": 15, "points": 15, "status": "passed", "evidence": [ "data/geo-outcome-evidence-ladder-current-20260715.json" ], "conclusion": "自有站当前层级：E3-public-crawlable。", "blocker": "" }, { "id": "ai-direct-url-evidence", "name": "AI direct-url 读取证据", "weight": 20, "points": 7, "status": "partial", "evidence": [ "data/pagesdev-ai-single-row-answer-quality-rp-20260714-doubao-g1.json", "data/external-action-authorization-queue-20260715.json" ], "conclusion": "A1 回答质检：awaiting-answer-evidence；当前推荐动作：A1-pagesdev-doubao-direct-url。", "blocker": "尚无本轮豆包原始回答和截图，不能证明自有站已被 AI 读取。" }, { "id": "external-media-validation", "name": "外部媒体发布路径", "weight": 12, "points": 4, "status": "partial", "evidence": [ "data/geo-outcome-evidence-ladder-current-20260715.json", "data/geo-bb78-submission-entry-priority-latest.json" ], "conclusion": "JJPP=E2-backend-published；博客园复投=E1-media-entry-or-controlled-url-ready；geo.bb78 入口状态=awaiting-user-readonly-inspection-authorization。", "blocker": "当前 JJPP 只到后台已发布，博客园只到入口/草稿，外媒路径未被验证为稳定可抓取。" }, { "id": "commercial-boundary", "name": "商业边界与合规口径", "weight": 15, "points": 15, "status": "passed", "evidence": [ "data/chargeable-mvp-gate-20260715.json", "data/paid-publishing-readiness-20260710.json" ], "conclusion": "诊断可收费=true；充值发文可开=false；AI 结果承诺可卖=false。", "blocker": "" }, { "id": "market-demand-validation", "name": "真实市场需求验证", "weight": 13, "points": 6, "status": "partial", "evidence": [ "data/geo-diagnostic-market-validation-readiness-latest.json", "data/geo-diagnostic-market-validation-results-latest.json" ], "conclusion": "市场验证准备状态：ready-to-prepare-outreach-not-launched；结果门禁：awaiting-authorized-outreach-results；目标：10 个潜客、2 个付费诊断。", "blocker": "尚未形成真实潜客名单、触达记录或付费诊断订单。" }, { "id": "unit-economics-assumption", "name": "单客经济假设", "weight": 10, "points": 7, "status": "partial", "evidence": [ "data/startup-unit-economics-20260715.json" ], "conclusion": "主报价锚点：standard；当前只是内部假设模型，不是成交证据。", "blocker": "还没有真实成交、真实工时和真实客户复购数据。" }, { "id": "recharge-ops-readiness", "name": "客户充值发文运营闭环", "weight": 10, "points": 2, "status": "partial", "evidence": [ "data/paid-publishing-readiness-20260710.json" ], "conclusion": "付费发布门禁：do-not-open-paid-publishing-yet。", "blocker": "合同、发票、余额扣费、退款、客户授权和真实订单仍未闭环。" } ], "tracks": [ { "trackId": "first-paid-diagnostic-service", "name": "第一款付费服务：7 天 GEO 证据诊断", "score": 74, "status": "ready-to-market-test", "oneLine": "可进入小范围市场验证；验收对象是报告和证据台账，不是 AI 命中。", "evidence": [ "data/chargeable-mvp-gate-20260715.json", "data/geo-diagnostic-market-validation-readiness-latest.json" ], "unlockCriteria": [ "准备 10 个潜在客户名单。", "至少 5 个有效对话。", "至少 1 个不要求 AI 结果承诺的付费或付费待确认诊断。" ], "allowedNow": [ "可介绍诊断、证据审核、问法蒸馏、AI 可见性基线。" ], "forbiddenNow": [ "不得承诺 AI 收录、推荐、排名、模型认知改变。" ] }, { "trackId": "controlled-site-ai-monitoring-pilot", "name": "自有站 AI 可见性监测 pilot", "score": 58, "status": "ready-for-authorized-test", "oneLine": "自有站已公开可抓取，但本轮 AI direct-url 证据仍缺原始回答和截图。", "evidence": [ "data/geo-outcome-evidence-ladder-current-20260715.json", "data/pagesdev-ai-single-row-answer-quality-rp-20260714-doubao-g1.json", "data/external-action-authorization-queue-20260715.json" ], "unlockCriteria": [ "授权执行 rp-20260714-doubao-g1。", "保存原始回答和截图。", "通过回答质检后再记录 L2/不可访问/风险降级结果。" ], "allowedNow": [ "可准备提示词、证据槽位、质检器、记录器。" ], "forbiddenNow": [ "未实测前不得声称 AI 已读取或推荐。" ] }, { "trackId": "paid-recharge-publishing-platform", "name": "客户充值发文平台", "score": 28, "status": "no-go", "oneLine": "原始的客户充值发文商业模式尚未被证明，当前不能开放。", "evidence": [ "data/paid-publishing-readiness-20260710.json", "data/chargeable-mvp-gate-20260715.json", "data/objective-current-progress-dashboard-20260715.json" ], "unlockCriteria": [ "至少 2 个真实客户完成诊断服务。", "支付、发票、退款、余额扣费和客户授权闭环完成。", "至少 1 条自有站/外媒发布从 E3 到 E5 完整跑通且无风险事实化。" ], "allowedNow": [ "只可做 sample-only 台账和后台规格设计。" ], "forbiddenNow": [ "不得收充值余额；不得按 AI 结果售卖。" ] }, { "trackId": "ai-outcome-guarantee", "name": "AI 收录/推荐/排名/模型认知改变承诺", "score": 0, "status": "permanent-no-go", "oneLine": "这个方向不应作为产品承诺；只能做监测和证据报告。", "evidence": [ "data/startup-current-decision-20260715.json", "data/geo-outcome-evidence-ladder-current-20260715.json" ], "unlockCriteria": [ "不设置解锁条件。" ], "allowedNow": [ "可陈述具体时间、平台、问法、原始回答和证据等级。" ], "forbiddenNow": [ "不得保证未来命中、稳定排名或模型训练吸收。" ] } ], "nextBestExperiment": { "id": "A1-pagesdev-doubao-direct-url", "authorizationPhrase": "授权只执行 rp-20260714-doubao-g1 这一条豆包 direct-url 测试", "why": "这是最小外部动作；通过后只证明 L2 direct-url 读取和边界保留，不证明自然推荐或商业模式成立。", "successEvidence": [ "原始回答文件存在", "截图存在", "单条回答质检器输出 positive-boundary-candidate", "记录器写入 adopted-with-boundary 或对应不可访问/风险降级状态" ] }, "hardBoundaries": [ "诊断服务可验证，不等于充值发文平台可开。", "E3 公开可抓取不等于 E5 AI direct-url 读取。", "E5 direct-url 读取不等于 E7 泛类目自然推荐。", "市场验证必须用真实潜客和真实付费意愿，不能用内部样板代替。", "AI 结果承诺不设置解锁条件。" ] }